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Signal archive · delayed

Every hand the house called.

The public ledger — every signal we persisted on Polymarket, with outcomes sampled at +1h, +6h, and +24h. Paid founders see these at t=0 via Telegram. The archive is delayed so founders keep the edge.

Signals in window
4
High priority
4
With outcome sample
4

Track record · 6h checkpoint · last 14d

36468 samples · 12261 missed

Bot consensus3610
no baseline
Closing divergence5
no baseline
New divergence22
27% converged
Position flip9581
no baseline
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24h7d30d
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
7h ago · Apr 27, 12:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 23.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 2.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
12h ago · Apr 27, 8:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 23.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

—
6h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
13h ago · Apr 27, 6:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 23.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
14h ago · Apr 27, 5:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 19.8% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 2.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →