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Signal archive · delayed

Every hand the house called.

The public ledger — every signal we persisted on Polymarket, with outcomes sampled at +1h, +6h, and +24h. Paid founders see these at t=0 via Telegram. The archive is delayed so founders keep the edge.

Signals in window
22
High priority
22
With outcome sample
22

Track record · 6h checkpoint · last 14d

34960 samples · 11591 missed

Bot consensus3475
no baseline
Closing divergence4
no baseline
New divergence21
24% converged
Position flip9234
no baseline
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24h7d30d
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
8h ago · Apr 27, 8:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 23.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

—
6h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
10h ago · Apr 27, 6:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 23.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
11h ago · Apr 27, 5:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 19.8% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 2.0%
—
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
1d ago · Apr 26, 3:05 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 18.4% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 2.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
1d ago · Apr 26, 2:05 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
1d ago · Apr 26, 1:05 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 0.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.5%
24h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
1d ago · Apr 26, 10:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 0.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
24h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
1d ago · Apr 26, 7:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 0.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 23.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
2d ago · Apr 26, 1:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 17.9% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 17.9%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 18.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
2d ago · Apr 25, 10:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 23.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
2d ago · Apr 25, 6:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
24h
25.5%
Δ 18.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
2d ago · Apr 25, 6:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 18.1%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
24h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
2d ago · Apr 25, 5:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 25, 3:35 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 17.9% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 17.9%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.1%
24h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 24, 11:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.1%
24h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 24, 10:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 17.8% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 17.9%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 24, 9:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 17.8%
6h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
24h
25.5%
Δ 0.5%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 24, 2:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 18.4% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 0.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
3d ago · Apr 24, 9:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 18.1% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
6h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
24h
25.5%
Δ 18.1%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
4d ago · Apr 24, 2:05 AM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.5% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

1h
25.5%
Δ 24.5%
6h
25.5%
Δ 18.1%
24h
25.5%
Δ 17.9%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
4d ago · Apr 23, 11:35 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.5% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

—
6h
25.5%
Δ 17.5%
24h
25.5%
Δ 24.0%
Open divergence dashboard →
highNew divergenceukraine ceasefire 2027
4d ago · Apr 23, 6:05 PM UTC

New divergence on ukraine ceasefire 2027

ukraine ceasefire 2027 opened a 24.0% gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters

Fresh dislocations are often the point where cross-market price disagreement is widest.

What to inspect next

Open https://www.botedge.net/divergence and compare whether either side has already started converging.

Outcome sample

—
—
24h
25.5%
Δ 18.4%
Open divergence dashboard →